This is the beauty of the midwit meme, is the genius
and the idiot come to the same conclusion. So what is the
idiot approach like? That's actually how you
can divine the genius approach is you're like, what would an idiot do?
Everyone can reach for the idiot approach. Everyone has the intellectual capacity
to reach for the idiot. If I didn't know anything.
This is Michael Seibel with Dalton Caldwell. Today we're going to talk
about how overthinking is sometimes a
founder's biggest mistake. So,
Dalton, this video was triggered by this amazing
meme that you made on fundraising advice. But before
we get to the meme, because I think it's, like, one of the best memes
I've ever. I've ever seen for fundraising advice. Let's start
in general. Let's start in general.
How can overthinking be bad and when can overthinking be bad?
Yeah, I mean, I think that what people think
being a founder is, is what they saw in, like,
watching the Facebook movie or. Or popular television,
where, you know, you're, like, coding a lot and you know you're making deals
and screwing over your friends. Just kidding.
But. But in reality, it's a lot of feeling
lost and being not sure what to do and feeling stressed out a lot,
and you're worried all the time. And so
you tend to overthink everything and every decision.
You kind of think in circles over and over and over again
because you don't have a boss, you don't have constraints. When you're a startup founder,
Right, there's no one really telling you what to do, so you're on your own.
And so when you the experience of being a startup founder,
it's to always be overthinking everything.
In this way, there's a bit of advantage to being young, right?
Yeah. Like, you and I experienced this ourselves as founders,
where we were young when we first started. And this is the beauty of
not knowing anything. The beauty of not knowing
anything is that you think everything is easy. And none
of the innumerable reasons why something might be hard or your
startup might fail even occurs to you. You're like, oh, yeah,
I'm 22. Like, everything's easy. I can figure this out.
Right. And so, again, this is like the midwit meme, where if
you don't know anything, your approach looks a lot like the
approach of people that are really good founders. And the worst
place to be is that you know just enough to know why the
things you're trying are hard. And the odds are stacked against you,
and that freaks you out. And so you think about it a lot, right?
Yes. So, Dalton, one of the most perfect examples
of this is actually Elon Musk. And why I
think it's so perfect is that depending on how you tell the
story, Elon looks like the dummy or the idiot.
Right. Like, I'm sorry, the dummy or the genius. Right. Depending on how you tell
the story. And it almost doesn't matter. Right. Because he's winning.
But, you know, to me, the first example that I always loved is that,
you know, I read some book about the starting of Space X,
and it started with Elon going to Russia trying to buy,
like, rockets. And, like, the Russian government
being like, there's this American billionaire guy
who wants to buy rockets and kind of not believing it,
but Elon just looking really serious. So they, like, considered it, and, like,
they eventually said no. But, like, he got to talk to people about
buying rockets from them, and he's just a dude with money.
He was like, go to Russia, buy rockets. Like,
that's the extreme. Is that genius or stupid? I can't tell.
I can't tell. And, like, with Tesla itself,
like, to me, the Midwit is. Electric cars are
good. That's the extreme. Electric cars is good. Or both in the middle, it's like,
no one has successfully done a startup car company since the 50s. And every.
You know, if you look at all prior attempts to build an electric car,
like, there's all these words and the infrastructure, you. Electric car is good.
Yeah. Yes. And I think that the one that
we find most funny, which we'll see this video, we'll see if we stand the
test of time, is the boring company. Right.
Drilling holes under the ground so that you can drive places
faster is very clearly the idiot one. But, like,
it could be the genius one, too. It's exact.
It's a beginner's mind idea, which is, like, traffic is bad.
What if we dug a hole under the ground to
get to downtown Las Vegas? And what's funny is you read all
the critiques of this, like, the Midwest, like, well,
bus systems already exist, and it might be much more efficient to optimize
transportation. You know, there's lots of words in the middle of that, but, you know,
drill tunnel to avoid traffic is certainly at
the extremes. Yeah, yeah. And you
kind of see him approach all of his problems this way, where you can imagine
it being the same sort of ideas that we, like, Mars is cool.
Like, yeah, Mars is cool. Like, this is the kind of stuff we come up
with as teenagers. Like a lot of his ideas. Yes.
And the hard work is in the implementation,
but the idea isn't very complicated. And like the V1
is kind of simple minded and if he was an overthinker,
he would rule all the stuff out. All this stuff is like obviously
a bad idea. And anyone in the Midway territory would rule out
all these ideas. Yes. Right. Yes. And they still do.
They still do. It's the Tesla short seller.
Right. Let's go through some
examples of the Midwit meme. And you have to
start with the meme that you made for YC founders. So just to provide context,
we're in the part of the batch where YC founders start getting nervous about fundraising.
And whenever a founder gets nervous, they start overthinking.
And whenever they start overthinking, they assault us with office hours
on topics. And Dalton created this
meme so that we could fight back.
What does the meme say? Yeah, the meme is simple.
It's the naive founder is like,
oh, I'm going to raise the amount of money I need to succeed.
Here's the amount of money I need to raise for my Series A, I ran
a model and it's $800,000, so that's what I'm going to raise. That is the
naive approach.
The really smart three time founder,
someone that's done this before, is like, I need to raise $800,000,
so I'm going to do it. And then the midwit is the one who
wants to ask 15 questions and try
to construct the perfect round and be afraid that some,
they may not have enough allocation for value add investors and they want to not
have a signaling risk. They talk a lot about signaling risk.
And there's like all these factors where I'll be talking
to someone and we'll be like 15 levels deep in a hypothetical for
an offer that they don't have. Right.
And that's, that's the Midway man. Is that like you're
screwing yourself by overthinking all this stuff instead of just being
like, hey, I need X dollars, I'm going to raise it and I'm going to
get back to work. This comes up a lot with MVPs.
One of the questions that I love getting from a founder is,
before we launched our mvp, how do we
know we're going to be able to survive the onslaught of traffic and
users that will come on our launch day?
What's the Midwit play? What's the Midwit meme for your mvp.
I mean, yeah, the, the,
the two extremes of the midweek meme are launch something
fast,
build something fast and put it out. And the minute one is like, well,
I don't want to get a bad reputation that my thing was buggy and
we only have one shot to launch. And, you know, like, you come
up. What about the press? We got to do a press launch. It doesn't have
to be an event. Yeah, I don't want people to see my idea and
copy it. So it's got to be perfect. Yes. That's why. And then do
we do. Do we do like a TechCrunch post?
Or is it better to try to get the New York Times? Or like,
what about hacker News? Yeah, we need to get all three. So how do we
coordinate them together? We want it. We want to be featured in the New York
Times. And so how do we optimize for that? Or, oh,
what should we name the company? How about. I don't.
Yes, we have to rebrand because there's a name that's kind of similar
to ours. We don't want people to be confused. How about co founders?
I hear this a lot. Like, I am
a business person and I'm good at sales. I need to
find a marketing co founder and an engineer,
like a CTO who's already managed 50 people because we're
going to grow fast. How does co founders. How do
you see? Yeah, Dalton, I'm open to the idea
of a co founder. I just haven't found the right person.
And what I really am looking for is someone with at least five to seven
years of experience at Google who
made it to at least a level seven. And so,
you know, I'm looking. I haven't found the right person yet. But we're looking for
it. Yes. When we find them, I'm totally open to bring out a
co founder when I find that one. But first we're going to raise money,
and then I think that'll attract a better co founder. Yeah. Yes. So again,
the point we're kind of making is not that any one of these ideas
is the one people say. It's that it's thinking in circles
and having a thousand different reasons that
it's that the person that should be your co founder is no
one that you currently know. Yes. Yes.
And let's talk about the other sides of the equation. Right. On the dumb
side, the founder's like, it's fun to work with my friends, so I'm just gonna
start a friend on the smart
Side. The guy, Justin Kahn likes to put a camera on his. You know,
let's go. This is our guy. Like, we were drinking buddies.
Why did they pick you as your. Is their co founder? Wasn't it like.
Well, because I helped them find an apartment and open. There you go.
This guy helped us find an apartment. All right. He's the co founder of Twitch.
Done. There you go. Done. And then, like, the super
smart experience founders, like, oh, having co founders viable for emotional
support. And I know this is going to be tricky. And, like, they have all
the, like, sophisticated reasons. Same answer, same answer.
I love that. Okay, next. This is a classic one, especially because
you have to deal with so many admissions questions. Applying to I.C.
dalton, what is. What is the. What is the Jedi
founder move? And to apply to IC versus the
Midwit founder. Yeah, the. The extremes of this in
the Midwit meme are I filled out my application
and submitted it. Like. Like, I applied.
And the Midwit founder is like, gee, I don't know if
now is the right time to apply. I don't know if we're ready. Oh,
I'm gonna. I'm gonna write a draft of my application and send
it to 15 people, and I'm gonna get feedback on my application,
and I'm going to, like, you know, oh, I need an
introduction to alumni, and I need to talk to alumni, and I
need recommendations. I need recommendations. Yeah, I need recommendations from strangers
that don't know me. I'm gonna do a lot of research.
Like, you see, you talk to people that, like, put months
of effort into their application to YC strategy.
Yes. Not correlated with success. And then
you talk to people and they're like, oh, yeah, I just,
like, filled it out in 30 minutes and submit in.
Yeah. And I spent all that other time working on
my company. And to be clear, we're not saying do a bad job
on your application. We're just saying trying to
tweak out on this is, like, something that you can
spend tons and tons and tons of time on. I'm not sure
that's a great allocation of resources. No, you didn't.
And I think that's, like, maybe the essential point here is that,
like, we want you to spend time on the important
stuff for your startup. Like, we're trying to get you to avoid
spending time on the things that won't help you. That's the
idea. That's the idea. All right, next.
And here's. Here's kind of a classic one is product market
fit. Dalton, do I have Product market fit
and how. What's the midwit approach to?
Yeah, the midwit approach for this one is to
be not sure if you have it and create 15
different metrics and like, a complicated series of thoughts that maybe
you have it or you have early product market fit versus
the extremes on this meme early.
The extremes of this are like,
am I overwhelmed with demand? Like, you know it when you see it. Like,
you don't have to think very hard when you have it. It sort of like
hits you over the head when you have product market fit. Dalton. I think the
extremes in the meme is like, did I sleep last night?
It's like, I didn't sleep last night. Do I have time to
wonder if I have product market fit? That's. Yes, if you have time to wonder
about it. If you're like, gee, do I have product market fit?
Let me. Let's pontificate on this. That probably means you don't. Yes, let's do some.
Let's make some reports. So we
talk about all the situations where maybe overthinking is not a good
idea. But you also describe, you know, there are certain situations,
you call them trapdoor decisions, when maybe you
want to think a little bit harder than before making a move.
So what are some examples of those? Yeah, so legal
issues don't break any law. Like,
saying you didn't know there was a law is not a great legal defense.
Regulatory issues similarly, oh, I didn't know that.
I couldn't launder this money.
Probably not great. You may want to overthink that and
look into it. Things that affect people's health and well
being. Yeah, you should overthink that. You should really spend the
time worrying about people. Right, man.
Like, let's not be fast and loose. If we're building an online
pharmacy. Let's. Let's measure twice,
cut once. Totally. And I think that what
really good founders do is they are very good at figuring out are they
dealing with something like that or are they not? Because even within legal
right, there's certain things that are like, oh, this is like, whatever. And there's certain
things that are, like, really bad. Michael, should I file
patents for all of my ip? Exactly. That's a classic
overthinking. Probably not. So I
think that the framework here is
really twofold. One, don't overthink when you don't have to.
And then two,
remember that, like, most of the work,
most of the work is not in these overthinking
games. Like, most of the work are not in these over optimizing games.
Yeah, it's action. Yeah. Taking action and not thinking,
right. Yes, yes. It's launching, it's getting
the first customer, it's selling. It's like it's doing these things yourself.
And that's counterintuitive because I think that founders understand that startups
are really hard, so they assume you need complex strategies
to succeed. And it's like, ah, that's a hard
thing. It makes sense when I say it. Right. This is hard. We would need
a complex strategy. Right. How do you respond to
that? What actual kind of strategy do you need? I think
if you haven't seen really successful startup
companies either personally, like where you were the founder
of one or you know, people and you saw them go through it.
Yeah. It's hard to believe how silly these things
are when they start. Like, I think unless you've literally witnessed
it personally and you've seen the
silly shit that goes on and like how what
it really takes to get big, your brain rejects the
idea. Yeah. That that's actually how these companies got built.
You're like, no, not true. It had to be like lots
of strategy meetings and whiteboarding, you know, flowcharts and,
you know, Gartner magic quadrants
of like, like, like, I think you really, your brain won't
allow you to see that. Actually, here's a nice way to
say it. Is you know the term beginner's mind? You want
to have a beginner's mind? Yes, that's what the midweek meme is. And a
beginner's mind is like, I guess I'm
gonna build a product and I'm gonna give it to people. I guess I'm gonna
deliver burritos, you know, like, yes, that's a beginner's
mind approach. Yeah, that's the game. And so you
might find yourself after watching this video asking
yourself, what do I need to unlearn? Yeah, how can I have a
beginner's mind? Because again, this is, this is the beauty of the midwit meme
is the genius and an idiot come
to the same conclusion. So what is the idiot approach?
Like, that's actually how you can divine the genius approach is
you're like, what would an idiot do?
Everyone can reach for the idiot approach. Everyone has the intellectual capacity
to reach for the idiot. If I didn't know anything.
So with all that being said,
have fun and don't overthink it too much.
Don't overthink it too much. And make sure that you have a
little bit of something in your head, that's asking yourself, is this the thing that's
really important? If not, I can move on. If not,
I can move on. All right. Thanks a bunch, Alton.